Oak Leaf leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.
About 70% of adults in Oak Leaf typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Oak Leaf, ~30% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~30% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Oak Leaf compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Oak Leaf leans more Republican than 20 of 53 neighbors.
Politically, Oak Leaf sits close to the rest of Texas.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Oak Leaf. The west side is the most split-leaning (R+40) and the east side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 40 points.
Why Oak Leaf leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Oak Leaf, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Oak Leaf votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 26%, modestly below the Texas average of 35%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 80% of households in Oak Leaf are family households, above 90% of cities.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Oak Leaf, TX sits above the national average on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Oak Leaf looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 94% of households in Oak Leaf own their home, about 19 points above the Texas average of 75%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and Oak Leaf sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Glenn Heights, TX D+44
- Ovilla, TX R+22
- Red Oak, TX R+12
- Pecan Hill, TX R+44
- DeSoto, TX D+64
- Lancaster, TX D+61
- Cedar Hill, TX D+49
- Midlothian, TX R+42
- Waxahachie, TX R+30
- Ike, TX R+40
Cities with Similar Populations
- Reeders, PA R+8
- Tripoli, IA R+41
- May, TX R+72
- New Ulm, TX R+69
- Tonto Basin, AZ R+58
- Keene, KY R+36
- Elm Creek, NE R+63
- Rangeley, ME R+4
- Mount Victory, OH R+62
- Ashley, IN R+55
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.