Oldsmar leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 75% of adults in Oldsmar typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Oldsmar, ~31% vote Democratic, ~43% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Oldsmar compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Oldsmar leans more Republican than 34 of 63 neighbors.
Politically, Oldsmar sits close to the rest of Florida.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Oldsmar. The north side is the most split-leaning (R+22) and the southwest side is the least split-leaning (R+3), a spread of about 19 points.
Why Oldsmar leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Oldsmar, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Oldsmar votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 66%, modestly above the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Oldsmar, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Oldsmar looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 96% of adults in Oldsmar have completed high school, about 7 points above the Florida average of 89%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Safety Harbor, FL R+6
- Palm Harbor, FL R+18
- East Lake, FL R+21
- Westchase, FL R+6
- Dunedin, FL R+10
- Crystal Beach, FL R+28
- Clearwater, FL R+3
- Town 'n' Country, FL R+6
- Keystone, FL R+27
- Citrus Park, FL R+5
Cities with Similar Populations
- Lynden, WA R+26
- Monroe, WA R+3
- Huntington, IN R+41
- Portsmouth, OH R+30
- Machesney Park, IL R+14
- Seymour, TN R+60
- Washington, NC R+9
- Lemont, IL R+18
- Jesup, GA R+44
- Fernley, NV R+40
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.