Paia leans heavily Democratic by roughly 32 points: about 66% of voters vote Democratic and 34% Republican.
About 52% of adults in Paia typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Paia, ~34% vote Democratic, ~18% Republican, and ~48% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Paia compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Paia leans more Democratic than 23 of 26 neighbors.
Paia runs about 8 points more Democratic than Hawaii as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Paia. The northwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+34) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+24), a spread of about 10 points.
Why Paia leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Paia, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 39% of adults in Paia hold a bachelor's degree, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 28%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 39% of adults in Paia have never been married, above 92% of cities.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with renter-heavy households tend to turn out at a lower rate; Paia, HI sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Paia looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 40% of households in Paia rent, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 15% of homes in Paia have more than one occupant per room, in the top fraction of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Hawaiian Village, HI D+20
- Haliimaile, HI D+24
- Spanish B Village, HI D+20
- Haiku-Pauwela, HI D+11
- Pauwela, HI D+14
- Makawao, HI D+22
- Kahului, HI D+18
- Haiku, HI D+15
- Wailuku, HI D+19
- Waikapu, HI D+16
Cities with Similar Populations
- Venersborg, WA R+29
- Manchester, ME R+4
- Avoca, MI R+52
- Woodleaf, NC R+48
- Somers, MT R+42
- Blythe, GA R+20
- Loreauville, LA R+55
- Beaver, OH R+62
- Redland, TX R+67
- Baileyton, AL R+81
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Hawaii Office of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Some land-use inputs for Hawaii, including walkability and the environmental-justice index, are estimated rather than measured, so the figures here carry added uncertainty. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.