Pasadena Bear Creek Estates, St. Petersburg, FL Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Pasadena Bear Creek Estates

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Pasadena Bear Creek Estates is a true toss-up. About 50% of voters here vote Democratic and 50% Republican.

 

About 76% of adults in Pasadena Bear Creek Estates typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Pasadena Bear Creek Estates, ~38% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Pasadena Bear Creek Estates compares

Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Pasadena Bear Creek Estates sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 5 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 9 leaning the other way.

Pasadena Bear Creek Estates runs about 13 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while Pasadena Bear Creek Estates sits closer to the political middle.

Politics vary noticeably by block within Pasadena Bear Creek Estates. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+5) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+9), a spread of about 14 points.

Why Pasadena Bear Creek Estates leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Pasadena Bear Creek Estates, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Pasadena Bear Creek Estates votes against the grain of Florida. Florida leans Republican overall, while Pasadena Bear Creek Estates runs about 13 points more Democratic.

Cancer-screening access and voter turnout

Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Pasadena Bear Creek Estates, St. Petersburg, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.

Why turnout in Pasadena Bear Creek Estates looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Pasadena Bear Creek Estates is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 65%, above 61% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.