Pavillion is a Republican stronghold. About 10% of voters here vote Democratic and 90% Republican.
About 60% of adults in Pavillion typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Pavillion, ~6% vote Democratic, ~54% Republican, and ~40% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Pavillion compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Pavillion is the most Republican-leaning.
Pavillion runs about 34 points more Republican than Wyoming as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Pavillion. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (Even) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+82), a spread of about 83 points.
Why Pavillion leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Pavillion, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 3% of residents in Pavillion live in densely developed areas, about 9 points below the Wyoming average of 12%.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Pavillion, WY sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Pavillion looks the way it does
Areas with low high-school completion turn out at lower rates. About 96% of adults in Pavillion have completed high school, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 90%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Kinnear, WY R+22
- St. Stephens, WY R+47
- Ethete, WY D+13
- Riverton, WY R+46
- Arapahoe, WY D+20
- Fort Washakie, WY D+45
- Sand Draw, WY R+24
- Wind River, WY D+38
- Shoshoni, WY R+68
Cities with Similar Populations
- Patoka, IL R+63
- Summersville, KY R+72
- Fair Oaks, IN R+59
- St. Paul, KS R+62
- Williamsburg, NM R+21
- Cokesbury, NC R+49
- Portage, OH R+41
- Payne Springs, TX R+66
- Floral Park, MT R+21
- Campton, GA R+61
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Wyoming Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.