Rancho Calaveras leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About 73% of adults in Rancho Calaveras typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Rancho Calaveras, ~23% vote Democratic, ~50% Republican, and ~27% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Rancho Calaveras compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Rancho Calaveras leans more Republican than 27 of 51 neighbors.
Rancho Calaveras runs about 58 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Rancho Calaveras is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Rancho Calaveras leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Rancho Calaveras, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rancho Calaveras votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Rancho Calaveras runs about 58 points more Republican. Dense places usually vote Democratic, but Rancho Calaveras runs against that pattern. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Rancho Calaveras sits in the bottom quarter (about 14%, below 81% of cities).
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; Rancho Calaveras, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Rancho Calaveras looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 95% of households in Rancho Calaveras own their home, about 33 points above the California average of 62%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Valley Springs, CA R+43
- Burson, CA R+44
- Campo Seco, CA R+49
- Wallace, CA R+49
- Milton, CA R+49
- Camanche North Shore, CA R+45
- Paloma, CA R+40
- San Andreas, CA R+26
- Buena Vista, CA R+42
- Clements, CA R+51
Cities with Similar Populations
- Resaca, GA R+68
- Croswell, MI R+44
- Winona Lake, IN R+33
- Elverta, CA R+33
- Avon, NY R+10
- Watertown, MN R+30
- Grambling, LA D+67
- Marshall, WI R+3
- Newmanstown, PA R+53
- Lake Ozark, MO R+46
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.