Rincon is a true toss-up. About 49% of voters here vote Democratic and 51% Republican.
About 33% of adults in Rincon typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Rincon, ~16% vote Democratic, ~17% Republican, and ~67% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Rincon compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Rincon sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 3 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 5 leaning the other way.
Rincon runs about 9 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Rincon. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (Even) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+14), a spread of about 15 points.
Why Rincon leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Rincon. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Population density, never-married share, and Republican lean
Places that combine low population density and a never-married-heavy adult population tend to lean Republican, as Rincon, NM does.
Why turnout in Rincon looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Rincon is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 39%, about 19 points below the New Mexico average of 58%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 43% of adults in Rincon report food insecurity, in the top fraction of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 59% of adults in Rincon have completed high school, in the bottom fraction of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Hatch, NM Even
- Rodey, NM R+11
- Salem, NM Even
- Radium Springs, NM R+15
- Garfield, NM Even
- Derry, NM R+29
- Arrey, NM R+22
- Dona Ana, NM R+17
- Fairacres, NM R+20
- Caballo, NM R+36
Cities with Similar Populations
- Remington, OH D+5
- Buffalo Ridge, SD R+51
- Brushy, OK R+56
- Pine Creek, WV R+66
- Northview, MO R+67
- Mallie, KY R+62
- Kelvin, ND D+13
- LaFayette, TX R+67
- Glentivar, CO R+2
- Maitland, MO R+66
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.