Saginaw leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 76% of adults in Saginaw typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Saginaw, ~31% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Saginaw compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Saginaw leans more Republican than 23 of 30 neighbors.
Saginaw runs about 22 points more Republican than Minnesota as a whole. Minnesota leans Democratic overall, while Saginaw is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Saginaw leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Saginaw, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Saginaw votes against the grain of Minnesota. Minnesota leans Democratic overall, while Saginaw runs about 22 points more Republican. Rural areas vote Republican, and Saginaw sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 5%, below 78% of cities).
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine high-school-completion-heavy adults and a rural land-use pattern tend to turn out at a higher rate, as Saginaw, MN does.
Why turnout in Saginaw looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Saginaw is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in Saginaw have completed high school, above 85% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Harnell Park, MN R+19
- Burnett, MN R+18
- Culver, MN R+17
- Four Corners, MN R+12
- Alborn, MN R+17
- Canyon, MN R+9
- Cloquet, MN R+4
- Brookston, MN R+2
- Hermantown, MN D+4
- Prosit, MN R+17
Cities with Similar Populations
- Oran, MO R+63
- Reynolds, GA R+15
- Lisbon, NH R+17
- Ty Ty, GA R+67
- Grand Forks Afb, ND R+33
- Hines, OR R+43
- Douglas, AK D+54
- Benton, KS R+54
- Ironton, MO R+56
- Level Plains, AL R+44
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.