San Juan Bautista leans Democratic by roughly 22 points: about 61% of voters vote Democratic and 39% Republican.
About 69% of adults in San Juan Bautista typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in San Juan Bautista, ~42% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~31% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How San Juan Bautista compares
Among cities within 25 miles, San Juan Bautista leans more Democratic than 19 of 33 neighbors.
Politically, San Juan Bautista sits close to the rest of California.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within San Juan Bautista. The west side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+27) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+14), a spread of about 13 points.
Why San Juan Bautista leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for San Juan Bautista, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 43% of residents in San Juan Bautista live in densely developed areas, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and San Juan Bautista sits in the top quarter (about 36%, above 83% of cities).
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; San Juan Bautista, CA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in San Juan Bautista looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. San Juan Bautista is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Morse, CA D+16
- Aromas, CA D+12
- Prunedale, CA Even
- Hollister, CA D+13
- Elkhorn, CA Even
- Old Gilroy, CA R+5
- Lonoke, CA Even
- Moss Landing, CA D+16
- Gilroy, CA D+17
- Pajaro, CA D+18
Cities with Similar Populations
- Micanopy, FL R+19
- Fall Creek, WI R+23
- Jay, ME R+38
- Somerset, OH R+59
- Pegram, TN R+53
- Coudersport, PA R+50
- Somerville, TX R+50
- Manor, PA R+24
- Burnham, IL D+64
- West Chazy, NY R+21
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.