Santa Cruz County leans Democratic by roughly 18 points: about 59% of voters vote Democratic and 41% Republican.
About 64% of adults in Santa Cruz County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Santa Cruz County, ~38% vote Democratic, ~26% Republican, and ~36% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Santa Cruz County compares
Santa Cruz County runs about 23 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Santa Cruz County is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Santa Cruz County. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+31) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+14), a spread of about 45 points.
Why Santa Cruz County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Santa Cruz County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Santa Cruz County votes against the grain of Arizona. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Santa Cruz County runs about 23 points more Democratic.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Santa Cruz County, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Santa Cruz County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Santa Cruz County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 48%, about 6 points below the Arizona average of 54%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Cochise County, AZ R+20
- Pima County, AZ D+16
- Pinal County, AZ R+16
- Graham County, AZ R+39
- Hidalgo County, NM R+22
- Greenlee County, AZ R+45
- Maricopa County, AZ D+3
- Gila County, AZ R+27
- Grant County, NM D+6
- Luna County, NM R+19
Counties with Similar Populations
- Val Verde County, TX R+12
- Goodhue County, MN R+22
- Bedford County, PA R+66
- Franklin County, NY R+11
- Noble County, IN R+49
- Greene County, NY R+13
- Whitman County, WA D+16
- Bingham County, ID R+54
- Carter County, OK R+46
- Jackson County, FL R+41
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.