Pima County leans Democratic by roughly 16 points: about 58% of voters vote Democratic and 42% Republican.
About 65% of adults in Pima County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Pima County, ~38% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~35% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Pima County compares
Pima County runs about 22 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Pima County is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Pima County. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+21) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+2), a spread of about 23 points.
Why Pima County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Pima County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 78% of residents in Pima County live in densely developed areas, about 42 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Pima County sits in the top quarter (about 35%, above 87% of counties). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 35% of adults in Pima County have never been married, above 84% of counties.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Pima County, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Pima County looks the way it does
Turnout in Pima County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Santa Cruz County, AZ D+17
- Cochise County, AZ R+20
- Pinal County, AZ R+16
- Graham County, AZ R+39
- Maricopa County, AZ D+3
- Greenlee County, AZ R+45
- Gila County, AZ R+27
- Hidalgo County, NM R+22
- Grant County, NM D+6
- Yavapai County, AZ R+22
Counties with Similar Populations
- Montgomery County, MD D+52
- Collin County, TX R+6
- Fulton County, GA D+46
- Honolulu County, HI D+18
- Fresno County, CA D+3
- Westchester County, NY D+27
- St. Louis County, MO D+28
- Duval County, FL D+7
- Marion County, IN D+29
- Mecklenburg County, NC D+35
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.