Shaw leans slightly Republican by roughly 6 points: about 47% of voters vote Democratic and 53% Republican.
About 84% of adults in Shaw typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Shaw, ~39% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~16% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Shaw compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Shaw leans more Republican than 12 of 28 neighbors.
Shaw runs about 10 points more Republican than Minnesota as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Shaw. The south side is the most split-leaning (R+13) and the north side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 13 points.
Why Shaw leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Shaw, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas with a high white share vote Republican. Shaw sits in the bottom quarter on density and about 96% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 10 points above the Minnesota average of 86%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 77% of households in Shaw are family households, above 81% of cities.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Shaw, MN sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Shaw looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Shaw is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 67%, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 96% of households in Shaw own their home, about 21 points above the U.S. average of 75%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in Shaw have completed high school, above 84% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Four Corners, MN R+12
- Canyon, MN R+9
- Harnell Park, MN R+19
- Saginaw, MN R+18
- Cotton, MN R+4
- Burnett, MN R+18
- Alborn, MN R+17
- Payne, MN R+11
- Culver, MN R+17
- Hermantown, MN D+4
Cities with Similar Populations
- Grosvenor, TX R+78
- Monero, NM D+33
- Talmage, NE R+55
- Kerrville, TN R+52
- West Washington, ME R+30
- Collinwood, VA R+73
- King And Queen Court House, VA R+34
- Kincaid, KS R+65
- North Henderson, IL R+31
- Hysham, MT R+66
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.