Smith County is a Republican stronghold. About 20% of voters here vote Democratic and 80% Republican.
About 70% of adults in Smith County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Smith County, ~14% vote Democratic, ~56% Republican, and ~30% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Smith County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Smith County is the most Republican-leaning.
Smith County runs about 36 points more Republican than Mississippi as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Smith County. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+84) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+13), a spread of about 70 points.
Why Smith County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Smith County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 7% of residents in Smith County live in densely developed areas, about 8 points below the Mississippi average of 15%. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Smith County sits in the bottom quarter (about 15%, below 86% of counties).
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Smith County, MS sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Smith County looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 88% of households in Smith County own their home, about 11 points above the Mississippi average of 77%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Simpson County, MS R+29
- Jasper County, MS D+2
- Covington County, MS R+32
- Jones County, MS R+32
- Scott County, MS R+18
- Jefferson Davis County, MS D+6
- Rankin County, MS R+42
- Newton County, MS R+34
- Lawrence County, MS R+30
- Clarke County, MS R+26
Counties with Similar Populations
- Choctaw County, OK R+54
- Franklin County, ID R+77
- Gulf County, FL R+56
- Cedar County, MO R+65
- Rusk County, WI R+38
- O'Brien County, IA R+54
- Clay County, AL R+65
- Claiborne Parish, LA R+11
- Massac County, IL R+46
- Knott County, KY R+67
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Mississippi Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.