South Padre Island leans Republican by roughly 22 points: about 39% of voters vote Democratic and 61% Republican.
About 59% of adults in South Padre Island typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in South Padre Island, ~23% vote Democratic, ~36% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How South Padre Island compares
Among cities within 25 miles, South Padre Island leans more Republican than 9 of 11 neighbors.
South Padre Island runs about 8 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Why South Padre Island leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for South Padre Island, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 2% of residents in South Padre Island live in densely developed areas, about 33 points below the Texas average of 35%.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; South Padre Island, TX sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in South Padre Island looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. South Padre Island is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 70%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Port Isabel, TX R+6
- Laguna Vista, TX R+34
- Bayview, TX R+35
- Los Fresnos, TX R+12
- Indian Lake, TX R+16
- Arroyo Gardens, TX R+16
- Brownsville, TX Even
- Lozano, TX R+14
- Olmito, TX R+10
- Laureles, TX R+11
Cities with Similar Populations
- Nunda, NY R+41
- Hamilton, MS R+61
- Pocono Summit, PA Even
- Leming, TX R+42
- Fillmore, IN R+58
- Laurelville, OH R+56
- Belfry, KY R+70
- Shelburn, IN R+58
- Kasilof, AK R+39
- Livingston Manor, NY R+16
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.