The Islands is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 72% of adults in The Islands typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in The Islands, ~35% vote Democratic, ~37% Republican, and ~28% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How The Islands compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, The Islands is the most Republican-leaning.
Politically, The Islands sits close to the rest of Arizona.
Politics vary noticeably by block within The Islands. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+5) and the east side runs the most Republican (R+9), a spread of about 14 points.
Why The Islands leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in The Islands. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; The Islands, Gilbert, AZ sits above the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in The Islands looks the way it does
Turnout in The Islands sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Heritage District, Gilbert, AZ D+5
- Downtown Chandler, Chandler, AZ D+22
- Southwest Mesa, Mesa, AZ D+14
- West Central, Mesa, AZ D+17
- Clemente Ranch, Chandler, AZ Even
- Central Mesa, Mesa, AZ R+6
- San Tan Ranch, Gilbert, AZ R+16
- Meyer Park, Tempe, AZ D+29
- Escalante, Tempe, AZ D+31
- Hohokam Village, Mesa, AZ D+9
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Martindale-Brightwood, Indianapolis, IN D+66
- Irvine Business Complex, Irvine, CA D+11
- Lansdowne, Charlotte, NC D+29
- University Park-San Antonio, San Antonio, TX D+30
- Arlington South, Riverside, CA R+2
- Staumbaugh Heller, Redwood City, CA D+51
- Downtown La Porte, La Porte, TX R+25
- Cotswold, Charlotte, NC D+25
- Biltmore Shores, Massapequa, NY R+44
- Tampa Heights, Tampa, FL D+53
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.