Santa Ynez leans slightly Democratic by roughly 6 points: about 53% of voters vote Democratic and 47% Republican.
About 69% of adults in Santa Ynez typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Santa Ynez, ~37% vote Democratic, ~32% Republican, and ~31% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Santa Ynez compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Santa Ynez leans more Democratic than 7 of 14 neighbors.
Santa Ynez runs about 15 points more Republican than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Santa Ynez. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+19) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+6), a spread of about 25 points.
Why Santa Ynez leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Santa Ynez, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 36% of residents in Santa Ynez live in densely developed areas, above 83% of cities. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Santa Ynez sits in the top quarter (about 38%, above 85% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 35% of adults in Santa Ynez have never been married, above 87% of cities.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Santa Ynez, CA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Santa Ynez looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Santa Ynez is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Los Olivos, CA D+14
- Solvang, CA D+13
- Buellton, CA Even
- Las Cruces, CA R+11
- Los Alamos, CA R+5
- Ellwood, CA D+37
- Goleta, CA D+53
- Isla Vista, CA D+80
- Sisquoc, CA R+26
- Garey, CA R+30
Cities with Similar Populations
- Iowa Falls, IA R+34
- Delta, PA R+53
- Spooner, WI R+27
- Groesbeck, TX R+50
- Surfside, FL R+21
- Hubbard, OR R+22
- Ogallala, NE R+54
- West Hazleton, PA R+13
- Paradise, CA R+19
- Cassopolis, MI R+21
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.