Tolstoy is a Republican stronghold. About 16% of voters here vote Democratic and 84% Republican.
About 66% of adults in Tolstoy typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tolstoy, ~11% vote Democratic, ~55% Republican, and ~34% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tolstoy compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Tolstoy leans more Republican than 7 of 16 neighbors.
Tolstoy runs about 40 points more Republican than South Dakota as a whole.
Why Tolstoy leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tolstoy, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 3% of residents in Tolstoy live in densely developed areas, about 6 points below the South Dakota average of 9%.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Tolstoy, SD sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Tolstoy looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Tolstoy is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 70%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in Tolstoy have completed high school, above 87% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Logan, SD R+70
- Hoven, SD R+72
- Onaka, SD R+67
- Loyalton, SD R+65
- Bowdle, SD R+62
- Norbeck, SD R+69
- Seneca, SD R+68
Cities with Similar Populations
- Guernewood Park, CA D+37
- Byrds Creek, WI R+27
- Toria, KY R+73
- Florey, TX R+84
- Sheridan, NV R+49
- Ocean View, HI D+12
- Broadview, NM R+84
- Maxine, AL R+88
- Maybank, MS R+50
- Newman, KS R+47
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from South Dakota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.