Toltec is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 49% of adults in Toltec typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Toltec, ~24% vote Democratic, ~26% Republican, and ~50% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Toltec compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Toltec leans more Republican than 6 of 19 neighbors.
Politically, Toltec sits close to the rest of Arizona.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Toltec. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+17) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+38), a spread of about 55 points.
Why Toltec leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Toltec. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Toltec, AZ does.
Why turnout in Toltec looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Toltec is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 20% of adults in Toltec report food insecurity, above 82% of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 75% of adults in Toltec have completed high school, below 96% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Eloy, AZ D+3
- Arizona City, AZ R+20
- Eleven Mile Corner, AZ R+49
- La Palma, AZ R+46
- Casa Grande, AZ R+14
- Randolph, AZ R+48
- Picacho, AZ R+46
- Chuichu, AZ D+35
- Friendly Corners, AZ R+43
- Coolidge, AZ R+12
Cities with Similar Populations
- Matlock, KY R+51
- Sharps, VA R+23
- Slater, WY R+75
- Grand Ronde Agency, OR R+26
- Slana, AK R+27
- Greenville, OR R+35
- Crossroads, VA R+41
- Glendon, NC R+57
- Richmond, AL Even
- Hereford, OR R+61
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.