Yermo leans heavily Republican by roughly 50 points: about 25% of voters vote Democratic and 75% Republican.
About 26% of adults in Yermo typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Yermo, ~6% vote Democratic, ~20% Republican, and ~74% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Yermo compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Yermo is the most Republican-leaning.
Yermo runs about 70 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Yermo is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Yermo. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+50) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+36), a spread of about 15 points.
Why Yermo leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Yermo, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 8% of adults in Yermo hold a bachelor's degree, about 27 points below the California average of 35%. Rural areas vote Republican, and Yermo sits in the bottom quarter on density (fewer than 1%, in the bottom fraction of cities). Yermo runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Yermo, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Yermo looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 45% of households in Yermo rent, about 20 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 15% of homes in Yermo have more than one occupant per room, in the top fraction of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Daggett, CA R+34
- Newberry Springs, CA R+45
- Nebo Center, CA R+23
- Barstow, CA R+13
- Lenwood, CA R+23
- Hinkley, CA R+41
- Hodge, CA R+32
- Fort Irwin, CA D+5
- Lockhart, CA R+48
Cities with Similar Populations
- Mount Blanchard, OH R+62
- Mathews, VA R+46
- Hatchbend, FL R+75
- Harrells, NC R+8
- Goshen, OR R+5
- Ravenna, TX R+77
- Lake George, MI R+46
- Pateros, WA R+27
- Wares Crossroads, VA R+39
- Panama, OK R+67
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.