05404 is a Democratic stronghold. About 81% of voters here vote Democratic and 19% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Vermont did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 58% of adults in 05404 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 05404, ~47% vote Democratic, ~11% Republican, and ~42% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 05404 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 05404 leans more Democratic than 19 of 21 neighbors.
05404 runs about 30 points more Democratic than Vermont as a whole.
Why 05404 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 05404, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 60% of adults in 05404 hold a bachelor's degree, about 32 points above the U.S. average of 28%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 56% of adults in 05404 have never been married, above 97% of zip codes.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 05404, VT sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 05404 looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 61% of households in 05404 rent, about 36 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and 05404 sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Vermont Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. VT did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.