33309 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 38 points: about 69% of voters vote Democratic and 31% Republican.
About 53% of adults in 33309 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 33309, ~37% vote Democratic, ~16% Republican, and ~47% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 33309 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 33309 leans more Democratic than 48 of 54 neighbors.
33309 runs about 51 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while 33309 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 33309. The southwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+74) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+7), a spread of about 67 points.
Why 33309 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 33309, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 90% of residents in 33309 live in densely developed areas, about 54 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 43% of adults in 33309 have never been married, above 90% of zip codes. 33309 runs against the grain of Florida, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; 33309, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 33309 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 33309 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 38% of households in 33309 rent, above 85% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.