86434 is a Democratic stronghold. About 78% of voters here vote Democratic and 22% Republican.
About 39% of adults in 86434 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86434, ~30% vote Democratic, ~9% Republican, and ~61% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86434 compares
86434 runs about 62 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 86434 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 86434. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+63) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+62), a spread of about 125 points.
Why 86434 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86434, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
86434 votes against the grain of Arizona. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 86434 runs about 62 points more Democratic. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 56% of adults in 86434 have never been married, above 97% of zip codes.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 86434, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in 86434 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 86434 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 29%, about 25 points below the Arizona average of 54%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 61% of households in 86434 rent, compared to around 15% in nearby zip codes. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 50% of adults in 86434 report food insecurity, in the top fraction of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.