Baxter County is a Republican stronghold. About 24% of voters here vote Democratic and 76% Republican.
About 69% of adults in Baxter County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Baxter County, ~17% vote Democratic, ~53% Republican, and ~30% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Baxter County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Baxter County is the least Republican-leaning.
Baxter County runs about 21 points more Republican than Arkansas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Baxter County. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+59) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+49), a spread of about 10 points.
Why Baxter County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Baxter County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with a high white share and below-average college attainment vote Republican. In Baxter County, about 91% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 19 points above the U.S. average of 72%; about 19% of adults hold a bachelor's degree, about 9 points below the U.S. average of 28%.
Cholesterol-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high cholesterol-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Baxter County, AR sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Cholesterol screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Baxter County looks the way it does
Turnout in Baxter County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Marion County, AR R+56
- Ozark County, MO R+67
- Izard County, AR R+65
- Searcy County, AR R+68
- Fulton County, AR R+64
- Stone County, AR R+63
- Boone County, AR R+58
- Howell County, MO R+62
- Douglas County, MO R+70
- Sharp County, AR R+62
Counties with Similar Populations
- McClain County, OK R+60
- Cooke County, TX R+57
- Wharton County, TX R+33
- Gratiot County, MI R+28
- Oconee County, GA R+41
- Marinette County, WI R+34
- Benton County, MN R+30
- Tift County, GA R+22
- Tallapoosa County, AL R+39
- Fayette County, TN R+33
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.