Bristol Bay Borough is a true toss-up. About 50% of voters here vote Democratic and 50% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Alaska did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 49% of adults in Bristol Bay Borough typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Bristol Bay Borough, ~24% vote Democratic, ~25% Republican, and ~51% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Bristol Bay Borough compares
Bristol Bay Borough runs about 13 points more Democratic than Alaska as a whole.
Why Bristol Bay Borough leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Bristol Bay Borough. None of them point strongly toward either party.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Bristol Bay Borough, AK sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Bristol Bay Borough looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 46% of households in Bristol Bay Borough rent, about 21 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 3% of homes in Bristol Bay Borough have more than one occupant per room, above 82% of counties. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and Bristol Bay Borough sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Lake and Peninsula Borough, AK D+13
- Dillingham Census Area, AK D+19
- Kodiak Island Borough, AK R+16
- Kenai Peninsula Borough, AK R+27
- Bethel Census Area, AK D+18
- Anchorage Municipality, AK D+20
- Matanuska-Susitna Borough, AK R+33
- Aleutians West Census Area, AK Even
- Aleutians East Borough, AK D+6
- Denali Borough, AK R+37
Counties with Similar Populations
- Hayes County, NE R+87
- Roberts County, TX R+90
- Golden Valley County, MT R+69
- Mineral County, CO R+5
- Clark County, ID R+65
- Hinsdale County, CO R+6
- Wheeler County, NE R+72
- Jones County, SD R+72
- Keya Paha County, NE R+82
- Treasure County, MT R+66
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Alaska Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. AK did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.