Carmel, NY Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Carmel

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Carmel leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.

 

About 79% of adults in Carmel typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carmel, ~34% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~21% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Carmel compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Carmel leans more Republican than 83 of 103 neighbors.

Carmel runs about 26 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while Carmel is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Carmel. The southwest side is the most split-leaning (R+30) and the northwest side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 30 points.

Why Carmel leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Carmel, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Carmel votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 28%, modestly below the New York average of 36%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Carmel runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.

High-school completion, uninsured rate, and voter turnout

Places that combine high-school-completion-heavy adults and a low uninsured rate tend to turn out at a higher rate, as Carmel, NY does.

Why turnout in Carmel looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Carmel is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 70%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.