Clay County leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 74% of adults in Clay County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Clay County, ~34% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Clay County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Clay County leans more Republican than 5 of 18 neighbors.
Clay County runs about 11 points more Democratic than Missouri as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Clay County. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+12) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+34), a spread of about 46 points.
Why Clay County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Clay County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Clay County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 70%, far above the Missouri average of 22%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Clay County, MO sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Clay County looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 94% of adults in Clay County have completed high school, above 85% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Platte County, MO R+5
- Wyandotte County, KS D+26
- Jackson County, MO D+24
- Ray County, MO R+53
- Leavenworth County, KS R+20
- Clinton County, MO R+48
- Johnson County, KS D+9
- Cass County, MO R+32
- Lafayette County, MO R+51
- Buchanan County, MO R+23
Counties with Similar Populations
- Forsyth County, GA R+22
- Jefferson County, TX D+8
- Yakima County, WA R+6
- Chesapeake City, VA D+9
- St. Clair County, IL D+13
- Williamson County, TN R+29
- Cumberland County, PA R+9
- McLennan County, TX R+19
- Washington County, AR R+3
- Harford County, MD R+4
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.