Downtown Turlock is a true toss-up. About 49% of voters here vote Democratic and 51% Republican.
About 46% of adults in Downtown Turlock typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Downtown Turlock, ~23% vote Democratic, ~23% Republican, and ~54% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Downtown Turlock compares
Downtown Turlock runs about 22 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Downtown Turlock sits closer to the political middle.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Downtown Turlock. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+5) and the east side runs the most Republican (R+8), a spread of about 13 points.
Why Downtown Turlock leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Downtown Turlock, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Downtown Turlock votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Downtown Turlock runs about 22 points more Republican.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Downtown Turlock, Turlock, CA does.
Why turnout in Downtown Turlock looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Downtown Turlock is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 61% of households in Downtown Turlock rent, compared to around 42% in nearby neighborhoods. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 10% of homes in Downtown Turlock have more than one occupant per room, above 92% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Mayfield, Ceres, CA R+25
- Downtown Waterford, Waterford, CA R+23
- Bystrom, Modesto, CA D+15
- Shackelford, Modesto, CA D+18
- South Modesto Acres, Modesto, CA D+21
- Downtown Modesto, Modesto, CA D+18
- West Modesto, Modesto, CA D+8
- Downtown Newman, Newman, CA R+3
- Crossroads-Riverbank, Riverbank, CA R+19
- Downtown Oakdale, Oakdale, CA R+17
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Trestle Glen, Oakland, CA D+80
- Matthews Beach, Seattle, WA D+73
- Westside Lansing, Lansing, MI D+54
- Jacksonville Farms-Terrace, Jacksonville, FL D+16
- Rabbit Creek, Anchorage, AK D+13
- Greenway, Beaverton, OR D+43
- Cedar Park, Seattle, WA D+67
- Pipers Meadow, San Antonio, TX D+21
- Balboa, Spokane, WA D+4
- Farm Pond, Charlotte, NC D+49
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.