South Modesto Acres leans Democratic by roughly 22 points: about 61% of voters vote Democratic and 39% Republican.
About 29% of adults in South Modesto Acres typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in South Modesto Acres, ~17% vote Democratic, ~11% Republican, and ~72% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How South Modesto Acres compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, South Modesto Acres is the most Democratic-leaning.
Politically, South Modesto Acres sits close to the rest of California.
Why South Modesto Acres leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for South Modesto Acres, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many never-married adults vote Democratic. About 50% of adults in South Modesto Acres have never been married, modestly above similar-sized neighborhoods (around 42%).
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; South Modesto Acres, Modesto, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in South Modesto Acres looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. South Modesto Acres is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 40%, about 22 points below the California average of 62%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 43% of adults in South Modesto Acres report food insecurity, above 95% of neighborhoods. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 58% of adults in South Modesto Acres have completed high school, in the bottom fraction of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Shackelford, Modesto, CA D+18
- Bystrom, Modesto, CA D+15
- West Modesto, Modesto, CA D+8
- Downtown Modesto, Modesto, CA D+18
- Mayfield, Ceres, CA R+25
- Crossroads-Riverbank, Riverbank, CA R+19
- Downtown Turlock, Turlock, CA Even
- Downtown Waterford, Waterford, CA R+23
- Downtown Oakdale, Oakdale, CA R+17
- Downtown Newman, Newman, CA R+3
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Woodstone, San Antonio, TX D+6
- Del Cerro, San Diego, CA D+27
- South Alum Creek, Columbus, OH D+26
- Sherman Park, Milwaukee, WI D+86
- Highlands Park, Renton, WA D+37
- College Heights, Wellesley, MA D+54
- Kendrick Lake, Lakewood, CO D+16
- Roscoe Village, Chicago, IL D+70
- Waterfront, Santa Barbara, CA D+55
- Ballast Point, Tampa, FL R+11
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.