Downtown Waterford leans Republican by roughly 22 points: about 39% of voters vote Democratic and 61% Republican.
About 49% of adults in Downtown Waterford typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Downtown Waterford, ~19% vote Democratic, ~30% Republican, and ~51% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Downtown Waterford compares
Downtown Waterford runs about 43 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Downtown Waterford is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Downtown Waterford. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+32) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+16), a spread of about 16 points.
Why Downtown Waterford leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Downtown Waterford, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 5% of adults in Downtown Waterford hold a bachelor's degree, about 30 points below the California average of 35%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 82% of households in Downtown Waterford are family households, above 89% of neighborhoods. Downtown Waterford runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; Downtown Waterford, Waterford, CA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in Downtown Waterford looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 10% of homes in Downtown Waterford have more than one occupant per room, above 91% of neighborhoods. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 67% of adults in Downtown Waterford have completed high school, below 96% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Mayfield, Ceres, CA R+25
- Downtown Oakdale, Oakdale, CA R+17
- Downtown Turlock, Turlock, CA Even
- Crossroads-Riverbank, Riverbank, CA R+19
- Bystrom, Modesto, CA D+15
- Shackelford, Modesto, CA D+18
- Downtown Modesto, Modesto, CA D+18
- South Modesto Acres, Modesto, CA D+21
- West Modesto, Modesto, CA D+8
- Downtown Newman, Newman, CA R+3
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Noralto, Sacramento, CA D+34
- Hewitt Area, Greensboro, NC D+60
- Nasons Corner, Portland, ME D+37
- Park Central, Orlando, FL D+37
- Midtown, Reno, NV D+36
- Larkinville, Buffalo, NY D+63
- Cloverleaf, Louisville, KY D+10
- Downtown Lafayette, Lafayette, CA D+53
- Washington, Fargo, ND D+8
- Methodist Town, St. Petersburg, FL D+31
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.