Luke Afb is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 44% of adults in Luke Afb typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Luke Afb, ~21% vote Democratic, ~23% Republican, and ~56% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Luke Afb compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Luke Afb leans more Republican than 9 of 24 neighbors.
Politically, Luke Afb sits close to the rest of Arizona.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Luke Afb. The northwest side is the most split-leaning (R+21) and the east side is the least split-leaning (R+3), a spread of about 18 points.
Why Luke Afb leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Luke Afb. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; Luke Afb, AZ sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in Luke Afb looks the way it does
Areas with low high-school completion turn out at lower rates. More than 99% of adults in Luke Afb have completed high school, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 90%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 6% of homes in Luke Afb have more than one occupant per room, above 90% of cities. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and Luke Afb sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Litchfield Park, AZ R+9
- Youngtown, AZ R+11
- Waddell, AZ R+35
- El Mirage, AZ D+3
- Avondale, AZ D+16
- Surprise, AZ R+20
- Goodyear, AZ R+8
- Sun City, AZ R+16
- Sun City West, AZ R+16
- Tolleson, AZ D+25
Cities with Similar Populations
- Brighton, IA R+41
- Leo, OH R+62
- Gulliver, MI R+44
- Oktoc, MS Even
- Amherst, TX R+75
- Ray, OH R+60
- South Fork, CO R+18
- Greentop, MO R+66
- Burton, ID R+69
- Wallen, IN R+38
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.