Surprise leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 75% of adults in Surprise typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Surprise, ~30% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~25% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Surprise compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Surprise leans more Republican than 16 of 25 neighbors.
Surprise runs about 14 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Surprise. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+28) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+10), a spread of about 18 points.
Why Surprise leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Surprise, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Surprise votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 88%, far above the Arizona average of 39%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 77% of households in Surprise are family households, above 81% of cities.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Surprise, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Surprise looks the way it does
Turnout in Surprise sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Sun City West, AZ R+16
- El Mirage, AZ D+3
- Waddell, AZ R+35
- Youngtown, AZ R+11
- Luke Afb, AZ R+3
- Sun City, AZ R+16
- Litchfield Park, AZ R+9
- Peoria, AZ R+16
- Wittmann, AZ R+52
- Glendale, AZ D+3
Cities with Similar Populations
- Victorville, CA Even
- Las Cruces, NM D+5
- Broken Arrow, OK R+16
- Hollywood, FL D+11
- Bellevue, WA D+44
- South Bend, IN D+22
- Orange, CA D+6
- Rancho Cucamonga, CA Even
- Mission, TX R+4
- Boynton Beach, FL D+16
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.