Avondale leans Democratic by roughly 16 points: about 58% of voters vote Democratic and 42% Republican.
About 55% of adults in Avondale typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Avondale, ~32% vote Democratic, ~23% Republican, and ~45% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Avondale compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Avondale leans more Democratic than 19 of 27 neighbors.
Avondale runs about 21 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Avondale is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Avondale. The southwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+26) and the northwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+3), a spread of about 23 points.
Why Avondale leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Avondale, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 86% of residents in Avondale live in densely developed areas, about 50 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 40% of adults in Avondale have never been married, above 94% of cities. Avondale runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Avondale, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Avondale looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Avondale is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 38% of households in Avondale rent, compared to around 22% in nearby cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 23% of adults in Avondale report food insecurity, above 88% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Tolleson, AZ D+25
- Litchfield Park, AZ R+9
- Goodyear, AZ R+8
- Luke Afb, AZ R+3
- Youngtown, AZ R+11
- Laveen, AZ D+32
- El Mirage, AZ D+3
- Waddell, AZ R+35
Cities with Similar Populations
- Suwanee, GA Even
- Brooklyn Park, MN D+37
- Hattiesburg, MS D+6
- Des Plaines, IL D+7
- Waukegan, IL D+39
- Carmel, IN D+4
- San Ramon, CA D+34
- Cordova, TN D+33
- Dublin, OH D+15
- Temple, TX R+15
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.