Fresno is a Democratic stronghold. About 78% of voters here vote Democratic and 22% Republican.
About 57% of adults in Fresno typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Fresno, ~45% vote Democratic, ~12% Republican, and ~43% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Fresno compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Fresno is the most Democratic-leaning.
Fresno runs about 69 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole. Texas leans Republican overall, while Fresno is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Fresno. The west side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+73) and the north side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+2), a spread of about 71 points.
Why Fresno leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Fresno, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 78% of residents in Fresno live in densely developed areas, about 41 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 41% of adults in Fresno have never been married, above 94% of cities. Fresno runs against the grain of Texas, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Fresno, TX sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Fresno looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Fresno is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Arcola, TX D+26
- Sienna Plantation, TX R+5
- Juliff, TX D+48
- Missouri City, TX D+36
- Rosharon, TX D+15
- Iowa Colony, TX D+5
- Manvel, TX D+5
- Thompsons, TX R+11
- Stafford, TX D+29
- Pearland, TX Even
Cities with Similar Populations
- Franklin, NC R+45
- Valencia, CA D+9
- Loma Linda, CA D+12
- Candler, NC R+13
- Angleton, TX R+31
- Argyle, TX R+38
- Bayonet Point, FL R+24
- Chelmsford, MA D+17
- Grandview, MO D+37
- Lemon Grove, CA D+22
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.