Hesperia leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.
About 51% of adults in Hesperia typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Hesperia, ~19% vote Democratic, ~32% Republican, and ~49% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Hesperia compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Hesperia leans more Republican than 21 of 35 neighbors.
Hesperia runs about 43 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Hesperia is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Hesperia. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+39) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+14), a spread of about 25 points.
Why Hesperia leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Hesperia, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Hesperia votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 81%, well above the California average of 58%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 80% of households in Hesperia are family households, above 90% of cities. Hesperia runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Hesperia, CA does.
Why turnout in Hesperia looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Hesperia is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 31% of households in Hesperia rent, above 86% of cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 28% of adults in Hesperia report food insecurity, above 94% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Oak Hills, CA R+39
- Victorville, CA Even
- Apple Valley, CA R+26
- Adelanto, CA D+8
- Cedarpines Park, CA R+20
- Phelan, CA R+39
- Lake Arrowhead, CA R+24
- Crestline, CA R+10
- Twin Peaks, CA R+23
- Blue Jay, CA R+16
Cities with Similar Populations
- Clinton Township, MI Even
- Lawrence, KS D+45
- Sunrise, FL D+27
- Federal Way, WA D+31
- Lynn, MA D+23
- Northridge, CA D+20
- New Bedford, MA D+8
- Pacoima, CA D+34
- Germantown, MD D+48
- Duluth, MN D+31
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.