Apple Valley leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 60% of adults in Apple Valley typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Apple Valley, ~22% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~40% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Apple Valley compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Apple Valley leans more Republican than 16 of 27 neighbors.
Apple Valley runs about 46 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Apple Valley is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Apple Valley. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+51) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+17), a spread of about 34 points.
Why Apple Valley leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Apple Valley, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Apple Valley votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 61%, about 25 points above the U.S. average of 36%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Apple Valley runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Apple Valley, CA does.
Why turnout in Apple Valley looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Apple Valley is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 29% of households in Apple Valley rent, above 83% of cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 23% of adults in Apple Valley report food insecurity, above 87% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Victorville, CA Even
- Hesperia, CA R+23
- Oro Grande, CA R+18
- Adelanto, CA D+8
- Oak Hills, CA R+39
- Lucerne Valley, CA R+35
- Lake Arrowhead, CA R+24
- Cedar Glen, CA R+32
- Blue Jay, CA R+16
- Twin Peaks, CA R+23
Cities with Similar Populations
- Castle Rock, CO R+15
- Muncie, IN Even
- Lithonia, GA D+81
- Upland, CA Even
- Land O' Lakes, FL R+22
- Alhambra, CA D+28
- Santa Clarita, CA Even
- Conway, AR R+13
- Camarillo, CA D+8
- Evanston, IL D+76
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.