Keeling leans heavily Democratic by roughly 38 points: about 69% of voters vote Democratic and 31% Republican.
About 40% of adults in Keeling typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Keeling, ~28% vote Democratic, ~12% Republican, and ~60% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Keeling compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Keeling leans more Democratic than 9 of 20 neighbors.
Keeling runs about 44 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Keeling is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Keeling. The east side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+51) and the northwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+35), a spread of about 16 points.
Why Keeling leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Keeling, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in Keeling live in densely developed areas, about 64 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 51% of adults in Keeling have never been married, above 82% of neighborhoods. Keeling runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Keeling, Tucson, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Keeling looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Keeling is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 42%, about 12 points below the Arizona average of 54%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 74% of households in Keeling rent, about 49 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and Keeling sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Iroquois, Louisville, KY D+23
- Eastmoreland, Portland, OR D+77
- Chapel Hill Village, Indianapolis, IN D+33
- Hall Manor, Harrisburg, PA D+59
- Far Southside, Abilene, TX R+53
- University Hills, Austin, TX D+64
- Stanford, Roseville, CA R+5
- Bensville, Waldorf, MD D+53
- Nashua Historic District, Nashua, NH D+24
- Camden, Salisbury, MD D+26
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.