Las Cruces, CA Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Las Cruces

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Las Cruces leans slightly Republican by roughly 10 points: about 45% of voters vote Democratic and 55% Republican.

 

About 41% of adults in Las Cruces typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Las Cruces, ~18% vote Democratic, ~23% Republican, and ~59% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Las Cruces compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Las Cruces leans more Republican than 11 of 14 neighbors.

Las Cruces runs about 31 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Las Cruces is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Las Cruces. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+14) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+15), a spread of about 29 points.

Why Las Cruces leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Las Cruces, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Rural areas vote Republican. About 2% of residents in Las Cruces live in densely developed areas, about 55 points below the California average of 58%. Las Cruces runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.

Developed land and Republican lean

Places with a rural land-use pattern tend to lean Republican; Las Cruces, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Developed land does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.

Why turnout in Las Cruces looks the way it does

Renters vote less often than owners. About 62% of households in Las Cruces rent, about 37 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 13% of homes in Las Cruces have more than one occupant per room, above 98% of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 85% of adults in Las Cruces have completed high school, below 79% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.