Lincoln Park-Buffalo leans Democratic by roughly 16 points: about 58% of voters vote Democratic and 42% Republican.
About 82% of adults in Lincoln Park-Buffalo typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lincoln Park-Buffalo, ~48% vote Democratic, ~34% Republican, and ~18% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lincoln Park-Buffalo compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Lincoln Park-Buffalo is the least Democratic-leaning.
Politically, Lincoln Park-Buffalo sits close to the rest of New York.
Why Lincoln Park-Buffalo leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lincoln Park-Buffalo, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in Lincoln Park-Buffalo live in densely developed areas, about 64 points above the U.S. average of 36%.
Developed land and Democratic lean
Places with a heavily developed built environment tend to lean Democratic; Lincoln Park-Buffalo, Tonawanda, NY sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Developed land does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Lincoln Park-Buffalo looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Lincoln Park-Buffalo is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 67%, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- University, Buffalo, NY D+52
- Starin Central, Buffalo, NY D+58
- North Park, Buffalo, NY D+48
- Lasalle, Buffalo, NY D+78
- Kensington, Buffalo, NY D+76
- Leroy, Buffalo, NY D+73
- Park Meadow, Buffalo, NY D+57
- Military, Buffalo, NY D+33
- Riverside Park, Buffalo, NY D+21
- Kenfield, Buffalo, NY D+79
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Avondale, Everett, WA D+20
- Weller, Springfield, MO D+8
- Monroe Ward, Richmond, VA D+56
- City Center, Toledo, OH D+58
- Tucson Park West, Tucson, AZ D+37
- City Center, Miami Beach, FL D+14
- Keewaydin, Minneapolis, MN D+65
- Delman, San Bernardino, CA D+25
- South 39th Street, Missoula, MT D+14
- Enderis Park, Milwaukee, WI D+61
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.