Mesa Forest leans heavily Democratic by roughly 44 points: about 72% of voters vote Democratic and 28% Republican.
About 79% of adults in Mesa Forest typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Mesa Forest, ~57% vote Democratic, ~22% Republican, and ~21% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Mesa Forest compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Mesa Forest leans more Democratic than 4 of 20 neighbors.
Mesa Forest runs about 58 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole. Texas leans Republican overall, while Mesa Forest is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Mesa Forest. The southeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+64) and the southwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+36), a spread of about 28 points.
Why Mesa Forest leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Mesa Forest, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 84% of adults in Mesa Forest hold a bachelor's degree, about 56 points above the U.S. average of 28%. Mesa Forest runs against the grain of Texas, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Mesa Forest, Austin, TX sits above the national average on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Mesa Forest looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Mesa Forest is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 73%, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in Mesa Forest have completed high school, above 85% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- North Shoal Creek, Austin, TX D+51
- Allandale, Austin, TX D+54
- Wooten, Austin, TX D+53
- Crestview, Austin, TX D+66
- Brentwood, Austin, TX D+59
- North Austin, Austin, TX D+48
- Highland, Austin, TX D+61
- North Burnet, Austin, TX D+45
- Georgian Acres, Austin, TX D+48
- North Lamar, Austin, TX D+37
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Apple Valley, Birmingham, AL D+71
- Pine Ridge, Coral Springs, FL D+7
- Park Meadow, Buffalo, NY D+57
- Woodbrook, Lakewood, WA Even
- Burkhardt, Dayton, OH D+2
- Springdale, Tulsa, OK D+21
- Valhalla, Milwaukee, WI D+79
- Ridgewood Junction, Glen Rock, NJ D+21
- University-San Bernardino, San Bernardino, CA D+29
- Cooper Park, Milwaukee, WI D+47
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.