Mesilla leans slightly Democratic by roughly 8 points: about 54% of voters vote Democratic and 46% Republican.
About 67% of adults in Mesilla typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Mesilla, ~36% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Mesilla compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Mesilla leans more Democratic than 18 of 19 neighbors.
Politically, Mesilla sits close to the rest of New Mexico.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Mesilla. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+19) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+12), a spread of about 31 points.
Why Mesilla leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Mesilla, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 41% of adults in Mesilla hold a bachelor's degree, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 28%. Dense areas vote Democratic, and Mesilla sits in the top fifth on density (about 50%, above 87% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 45% of adults in Mesilla have never been married, above 96% of cities.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Mesilla, NM sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Mesilla looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Mesilla is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Mesilla Park, NM D+19
- Santo Tomas, NM R+4
- Las Cruces, NM D+5
- Dona Ana, NM R+17
- San Miguel, NM Even
- La Mesa, NM Even
- Mesquite, NM R+3
- Vado, NM D+2
- Spaceport City, NM R+17
- Fairacres, NM R+20
Cities with Similar Populations
- Elmwood, IL R+31
- Dixfield, ME R+30
- Seabrook, SC D+20
- Blasdell, NY R+7
- Black Earth, WI D+9
- Woodsboro, MD R+26
- Smethport, PA R+53
- Ronceverte, WV R+48
- Irving, NY D+6
- Broad Run, VA R+11
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.