Miami Beach is a true toss-up. About 50% of voters here vote Democratic and 50% Republican.
About 62% of adults in Miami Beach typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Miami Beach, ~31% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~38% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Miami Beach compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Miami Beach sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 45 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 32 leaning the other way.
Miami Beach runs about 14 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while Miami Beach sits closer to the political middle.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Miami Beach. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+7) and the north side runs the most Republican (R+22), a spread of about 29 points.
Why Miami Beach leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Miami Beach, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Miami Beach votes against the grain of Florida. Florida leans Republican overall, while Miami Beach runs about 14 points more Democratic.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Miami Beach, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Miami Beach looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Miami Beach is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 51% of households in Miami Beach rent, about 26 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and Miami Beach sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- North Bay Village, FL R+5
- Miami Shores, FL D+30
- El Portal, FL D+46
- Surfside, FL R+21
- Bay Harbor Islands, FL R+15
- Biscayne Park, FL D+12
- Gladeview, FL D+53
- Brownsville, FL D+47
- Bal Harbour, FL R+27
Cities with Similar Populations
- Richmond, KY R+17
- Annapolis, MD D+34
- Delano, CA D+11
- Edmonds, WA D+30
- Chambersburg, PA R+26
- Ceres, CA R+5
- Glen Allen, VA D+18
- Alexandria, LA D+19
- Prescott, AZ R+8
- Kentwood, MI D+22
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.