Midvale Park leans heavily Democratic by roughly 34 points: about 67% of voters vote Democratic and 33% Republican.
About 49% of adults in Midvale Park typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Midvale Park, ~33% vote Democratic, ~16% Republican, and ~51% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Midvale Park compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Midvale Park leans more Democratic than 4 of 9 neighbors.
Midvale Park runs about 40 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Midvale Park is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Why Midvale Park leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Midvale Park, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Midvale Park votes against the grain of Arizona. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Midvale Park runs about 40 points more Democratic. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 51% of adults in Midvale Park have never been married, above 83% of neighborhoods.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Midvale Park, Tucson, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Midvale Park looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Midvale Park is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 43%, about 11 points below the Arizona average of 54%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 6% of homes in Midvale Park have more than one occupant per room, above 83% of neighborhoods. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 83% of adults in Midvale Park have completed high school, below 81% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Sunnyside, Tucson, AZ D+40
- Elvira, Summit, AZ D+40
- Santa Cruz Southwest, Tucson, AZ D+32
- Wakefield, Tucson, AZ D+43
- Cherry Avenue, Tucson, AZ D+33
- Westside Development, Tucson, AZ D+27
- Bravo Park Lane, Tucson, AZ D+36
- Rancho Buena, Tucson, AZ D+32
- South Park, Tucson, AZ D+38
- Las Vistas, Tucson, AZ D+44
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Van Nest, Bronx, NY D+19
- Virginia-Highland, Atlanta, GA D+53
- Columbia City, Seattle, WA D+71
- Tottenville, Staten Island, NY R+62
- Whittier, Minneapolis, MN D+72
- South Side, Columbus, OH D+50
- Chambersburg, Trenton, NJ D+39
- South Lowell, Lowell, MA D+19
- salisbury, Allentown, PA R+2
- Winter Gardens, Lakeside, CA R+20
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.