Rancho Buena leans heavily Democratic by roughly 32 points: about 66% of voters vote Democratic and 34% Republican.
About 39% of adults in Rancho Buena typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Rancho Buena, ~26% vote Democratic, ~13% Republican, and ~61% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Rancho Buena compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Rancho Buena leans more Democratic than 3 of 12 neighbors.
Rancho Buena runs about 37 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Rancho Buena is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Why Rancho Buena leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Rancho Buena, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rancho Buena votes against the grain of Arizona. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Rancho Buena runs about 37 points more Democratic.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Rancho Buena, Tucson, AZ sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Rancho Buena looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Rancho Buena is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 45%, about 10 points below the Arizona average of 54%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 34% of adults in Rancho Buena report food insecurity, above 87% of neighborhoods. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 73% of adults in Rancho Buena have completed high school, below 93% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Cherry Avenue, Tucson, AZ D+33
- Bravo Park Lane, Tucson, AZ D+36
- Las Vistas, Tucson, AZ D+44
- Sunnyside, Tucson, AZ D+40
- Wakefield, Tucson, AZ D+43
- South Park, Tucson, AZ D+38
- Julia Keen, Tucson, AZ D+33
- Elvira, Summit, AZ D+40
- Myers, Tucson, AZ D+24
- Midvale Park, Tucson, AZ D+35
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Goddard, Seabrook, MD D+71
- North Division, Milwaukee, WI D+86
- East Ridge-Ptarmigan Park, Aurora, CO D+34
- La Mer, Parlin, NJ D+15
- Over-the-Rhine, Cincinnati, OH D+68
- University Town Center, Irvine, CA D+33
- Highland, Austin, TX D+61
- Flosden, Vallejo, CA D+26
- North Springfield, Springfield, VA D+26
- Hampden, Denver, CO D+47
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.