Coto de Caza, CA Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Coto de Caza

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Coto de Caza leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.

 

About 80% of adults in Coto de Caza typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Coto de Caza, ~34% vote Democratic, ~46% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Coto de Caza compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Coto de Caza leans more Republican than 40 of 50 neighbors.

Coto de Caza runs about 36 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Coto de Caza is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.

Why Coto de Caza leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Coto de Caza, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Coto de Caza votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 69%, modestly above the California average of 58%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 88% of households in Coto de Caza are family households, above 98% of cities. Coto de Caza runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.

Food insecurity and voter turnout

Places with low food insecurity tend to turn out at a higher rate; Coto de Caza, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Food insecurity does not directly drive turnout; it reflects economic hardship, which lines up with lower voting.

Why turnout in Coto de Caza looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Coto de Caza is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 77%, about 17 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 92% of households in Coto de Caza own their home, compared to around 74% in nearby cities. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 99% of adults in Coto de Caza have completed high school, above 97% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.