Mount Carmel is a Republican stronghold. About 19% of voters here vote Democratic and 81% Republican.
About 81% of adults in Mount Carmel typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Mount Carmel, ~15% vote Democratic, ~66% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Mount Carmel compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Mount Carmel leans more Republican than 11 of 73 neighbors.
Mount Carmel runs about 31 points more Republican than Tennessee as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Mount Carmel. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+68) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+51), a spread of about 17 points.
Why Mount Carmel leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Mount Carmel, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with a high white share and below-average college attainment vote Republican. In Mount Carmel, about 96% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 24 points above the U.S. average of 72%; about 17% of adults hold a bachelor's degree, about 11 points below the U.S. average of 28%. Dense places usually vote Democratic, but Mount Carmel runs against that pattern.
Developed land and Democratic lean
Places with a heavily developed built environment tend to lean Democratic; Mount Carmel, TN sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Developed land does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Mount Carmel looks the way it does
Turnout in Mount Carmel sits close to the national pattern. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Church Hill, TN R+64
- New Canton, TN R+66
- Gate City, VA R+66
- Weber City, VA R+65
- Kingsport, TN R+45
- Bloomingdale, TN R+57
- Manville, VA R+75
- Clinchport, VA R+76
- Williams Mill, VA R+72
Cities with Similar Populations
- Lucerne Valley, CA R+35
- Dickson City, PA Even
- Silt, CO R+29
- Caldwell, TX R+49
- Derby, NY R+19
- Barling, AR R+38
- Dousman, WI R+31
- Jay, OK R+57
- Bloomingdale, GA R+40
- Arrington, TN R+44
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Tennessee Secretary of State, Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.