Mount Lemmon, AZ Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Mount Lemmon

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Mount Lemmon leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.

 

About 50% of adults in Mount Lemmon typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Mount Lemmon, ~23% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~50% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Mount Lemmon compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Mount Lemmon leans more Republican than 10 of 16 neighbors.

Politically, Mount Lemmon sits close to the rest of Arizona.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Mount Lemmon. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+6) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+10), a spread of about 16 points.

Why Mount Lemmon leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Mount Lemmon, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Rural areas vote Republican. Fewer than 1% of residents in Mount Lemmon live in densely developed areas, about 38 points below the Arizona average of 39%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 77% of households in Mount Lemmon are family households, above 81% of cities.

Paved land cover and Republican lean

Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Mount Lemmon, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.

Why turnout in Mount Lemmon looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Mount Lemmon is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 72%, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.