San Manuel leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 61% of adults in San Manuel typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in San Manuel, ~23% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~39% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How San Manuel compares
Among cities within 25 miles, San Manuel leans more Republican than 8 of 11 neighbors.
San Manuel runs about 21 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within San Manuel. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+37) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+15), a spread of about 21 points.
Why San Manuel leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for San Manuel, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 8% of adults in San Manuel hold a bachelor's degree, about 17 points below the Arizona average of 25%. Dense places usually vote Democratic, but San Manuel runs against that pattern.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as San Manuel, AZ does.
Why turnout in San Manuel looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. San Manuel is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 48%, about 6 points below the Arizona average of 54%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 23% of adults in San Manuel report food insecurity, above 88% of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 87% of adults in San Manuel have completed high school, below 74% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Mammoth, AZ Even
- Oracle, AZ R+26
- Mount Lemmon, AZ R+8
- Saddlebrooke, AZ R+8
- Catalina, AZ R+19
- Redington, AZ R+41
- Dudleyville, AZ R+6
- Klondyke, AZ R+55
- Oro Valley, AZ D+3
Cities with Similar Populations
- Buffalo, TX R+65
- Sutton, WV R+54
- Heiskell, TN R+62
- Grundy Center, IA R+43
- Columbia City, OR R+22
- Catawissa, MO R+51
- Plympton, MA R+14
- Black Hawk, CO D+15
- Clayton, NY R+12
- Orangeville, PA R+46
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.