Newton County is a Republican stronghold. About 20% of voters here vote Democratic and 80% Republican.
About 71% of adults in Newton County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Newton County, ~14% vote Democratic, ~57% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Newton County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Newton County leans more Republican than 4 of 8 neighbors.
Newton County runs about 47 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Newton County. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+7) and the south side runs the most Republican (R+75), a spread of about 83 points.
Why Newton County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Newton County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 6% of adults in Newton County hold a bachelor's degree, about 19 points below the Texas average of 26%. Rural areas vote Republican, and Newton County sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 8%, below 86% of counties).
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Newton County, TX sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Newton County looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 84% of households in Newton County own their home, about 9 points above the Texas average of 75%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and Newton County sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Jasper County, TX R+54
- Beauregard Parish, LA R+70
- Tyler County, TX R+70
- Orange County, TX R+59
- Hardin County, TX R+68
- Vernon Parish, LA R+56
- Calcasieu Parish, LA R+29
- Sabine County, TX R+72
- Jefferson County, TX D+8
- San Augustine County, TX R+47
Counties with Similar Populations
- Todd County, KY R+59
- Rolette County, ND D+33
- Morrow County, OR R+36
- Pike County, IN R+55
- Rains County, TX R+75
- Pamlico County, NC R+37
- Northampton County, VA Even
- Morgan County, UT R+63
- Union County, IA R+33
- Menard County, IL R+41
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.