Midtown leans heavily Democratic by roughly 34 points: about 67% of voters vote Democratic and 33% Republican.
About 45% of adults in Midtown typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Midtown, ~30% vote Democratic, ~15% Republican, and ~55% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Midtown compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Midtown leans more Democratic than 6 of 22 neighbors.
Midtown runs about 39 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Midtown is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Midtown. The southwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+41) and the northwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+29), a spread of about 13 points.
Why Midtown leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Midtown, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in Midtown live in densely developed areas, about 64 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 52% of adults in Midtown have never been married, above 85% of neighborhoods. Midtown runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Midtown, Tucson, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Midtown looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 73% of households in Midtown rent, about 48 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and Midtown sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Palo Verde, Tucson, AZ D+41
- Blenman-Elm, Tucson, AZ D+52
- Miramonte, Tucson, AZ D+43
- Sam Hughes, Tucson, AZ D+59
- Prince Tucson, Tucson, AZ D+36
- North University, Tucson, AZ D+56
- Myers, Tucson, AZ D+24
- Julia Keen, Tucson, AZ D+33
- Rincon Heights, Tucson, AZ D+57
- Hedrick Acres, Tucson, AZ D+53
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- The Trails, Las Vegas, NV D+9
- Terra Nova, Chula Vista, CA D+14
- Somerville, Manchester, NH D+26
- Chevy Chase, Glendale, CA D+3
- Riverside Rancho, Glendale, CA D+38
- Creighton Village, Old Bridge, NJ R+24
- Clifton Heights, Louisville, KY D+44
- Whisman Station, Mountain View, CA D+45
- Old North Sacramento, Sacramento, CA D+39
- Lakeview, Orem, UT R+18
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.