Poinciana, FL Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Poinciana

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Poinciana leans Democratic by roughly 16 points: about 58% of voters vote Democratic and 42% Republican.

 

About 63% of adults in Poinciana typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Poinciana, ~37% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~36% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Poinciana compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Poinciana leans more Democratic than 42 of 43 neighbors.

Poinciana runs about 30 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while Poinciana is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Poinciana. The southwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+25) and the west side is the least Democratic-leaning (Even), a spread of about 23 points.

Why Poinciana leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Poinciana, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Dense areas vote Democratic. About 57% of residents in Poinciana live in densely developed areas, about 21 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 32% of adults in Poinciana have never been married, above 79% of cities. Poinciana runs against the grain of Florida, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.

Walkability and Democratic lean

Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Poinciana, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.

Why turnout in Poinciana looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Poinciana is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 24%, about 9 points above the Florida average of 15%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.